As a host of leading managed care organizations (MCOs) roll out their most recent earnings reports, it is important to analyze some of the key drivers of plan performance. A key driver of success for MCOs recently has been low utilization, which has driven earnings that exceed market expectations.
Utilization: As indicated, utilization has been a primary driver of recent MCO performance upside; in addition to the important role it plays in setting future pricing, capitation rates and earnings expectations. So what exactly drives utilization among managed care plans? In short, utilization refers to the use of services by members or the patterns of rates of use of certain services such as hospital care, physician visits and prescription drugs. Utilization has long been viewed to be driven primarily by the economy, which has benefited MCOs in the near-term. The current economic climate has been beneficial to many of the MCOs in terms of utilization in that people have deferred medical care. For example, given the current economic climate, it is likely that consumers are more than likely to wait it out a few days rather than going to a doctor and incurring a co-pay plus a prescription charge. As people have put off medical care, MCOs have benefited from lower than expected medical expenses. Lower medical expenses relative to premiums collected equal more profitability (all other things like MLR rebates aside).
One of the big questions right now surrounding MCOs has to do with what future utilization will look like. MCOs have benefited greatly from the recent 3-year cycle of lowered utilization rates starting in 2009. Perhaps the biggest question is whether the broader implications of this trend should be accounted for in setting future plan pricing or earning expectations. Is the trend of lowered utilization correlated to the recession, unemployment and economic concerns or is there a fundamental change in how people look at medical care, especially related to consumer-directed health, higher deductible plans and the cost shift to the consumer?
Given the current economic impasse in the United States and abroad, one would expect that trend is expected to continue driving continued earnings upside among MCOs. However, this has not been the case in the guidance provided by many leading MCOs. Several MCOs are predicting higher utilization for 2012. This higher utilization will have a direct impact on the earnings performance among these plans and have been a key topic among analysts and industry commentators. These recent utilization suggestions have been supported by analyst estimates that utilization rates will increase by up to 50-150 basis points in the near-term. As analysts are just now updating their 2012 models to reflect increased utilization, it is likely that model updates will lead to lowered 2012 analyst earnings forecasts and related price downgrades in the MCO sector. The analyst community generally has taken a hard stance on MCO utilization and it is likely that we will witness several MCO downgrades in the near term as analyst work to assess the impact of increased 2012 utilization assumption.
Several counter viewpoints exist that utilization rates will not move increase as much as the carriers are suggesting. The prevailing viewpoint from this camp is that although there might be marginal utilization increases this year, the profit spread will remain as pricing increases will exceed the expected increases in medical cost spending as a result of increased utilization. This stance prevailed in 2011 as utilization last year was below expectations, leading to overall MCO sector public market performance that exceeded other healthcare sectors.
While low healthcare utilization is generally beneficial to MCOs, it generally has the opposite effect on other healthcare sectors, including hospitals and healthcare IT and services companies. These groups generally benefit from the consumption of services, which was the focus of the most recent HCA earnings release. During this release, HCA cited a rise in same-facility admissions to be a key driver of their earnings increase despite a decline in domestic surgery admissions and revenue-per-equivalent admission fell amid Medicaid reduction.
However, it is important to note that role that several other factors play in formulating earnings expectations and guidance. Almost equally important to some MCOs as utilization (particularly those with Medicare enrollment) are factors related to new member enrollment and Medicare Advantage conversion rates. In addition, several MCOs face huge earnings upside related to expansion of Medicare / Medicaid dual eligible enrollment as well.
It appears that the uncertainty that plagued MCOs following PPACA’s passage has been pushed to the back burner as most MCOs have generally benefitted from the legislation. While there is still some fine-tuning on the edges of reform that still present an overhang for MCOs (namely, MLR limitations, administrative cost constraints), that is a topic for another day as the current focus appears to be squarely on near-term medical cost expenses and new opportunity capture (courtesy of dual eligible expansion, state Medicaid RFPs and commercial market pricing pressure).
Let us know what you think.
Joe Long
Joe Long is a Senior Analyst at TripleTree covering the healthcare industry, covering payer-focused healthcare software and service providers. You can email him at jlong@triple-tree.com.
Scott Donahue
Scott Donahue is a Vice President at TripleTree covering infrastructure and application technologies across numerous industries and specializes in assessing the “master brands” of IT and Healthcare. Follow Scott on Twitter or e-mail him at sdonahue@triple-tree.com
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