Utilization Sits at the Forefront of Recent and Future MCO Performance

As a host of leading managed care organizations (MCOs) roll out their most recent earnings reports, it is important to analyze some of the key drivers of plan performance. A key driver of success for MCOs recently has been low utilization, which has driven earnings that exceed market expectations.

Utilization: As indicated, utilization has been a primary driver of recent MCO performance upside; in addition to the important role it plays in setting future pricing, capitation rates and earnings expectations. So what exactly drives utilization among managed care plans? In short, utilization refers to the use of services by members or the patterns of rates of use of certain services such as hospital care, physician visits and prescription drugs. Utilization has long been viewed to be driven primarily by the economy, which has benefited MCOs in the near-term.  The current economic climate has been beneficial to many of the MCOs in terms of utilization in that people have deferred medical care. For example, given the current economic climate, it is likely that consumers are more than likely to wait it out a few days rather than going to a doctor and incurring a co-pay plus a prescription charge. As people have put off medical care, MCOs have benefited from lower than expected medical expenses. Lower medical expenses relative to premiums collected equal more profitability (all other things like MLR rebates aside).

One of the big questions right now surrounding MCOs has to do with what future utilization will look like.  MCOs have benefited greatly from the recent 3-year cycle of lowered utilization rates starting in 2009. Perhaps the biggest question is whether the broader implications of this trend should be accounted for in setting future plan pricing or earning expectations. Is the trend of lowered utilization correlated to the recession, unemployment and economic concerns or is there a fundamental change in how people look at medical care, especially related to consumer-directed health, higher deductible plans and the cost shift to the consumer?

Given the current economic impasse in the United States and abroad, one would expect that trend is expected to continue driving continued earnings upside among MCOs. However, this has not been the case in the guidance provided by many leading MCOs. Several MCOs are predicting higher utilization for 2012. This higher utilization will have a direct impact on the earnings performance among these plans and have been a key topic among analysts and industry commentators. These recent utilization suggestions have been supported by analyst estimates that utilization rates will increase by up to 50-150 basis points in the near-term. As analysts are just now updating their 2012 models to reflect increased utilization, it is likely that model updates will lead to lowered 2012 analyst earnings forecasts and related price downgrades in the MCO sector. The analyst community generally has taken a hard stance on MCO utilization and it is likely that we will witness several MCO downgrades in the near term as analyst work to assess the impact of increased 2012 utilization assumption.

Several counter viewpoints exist that utilization rates will not move increase as much as the carriers are suggesting. The prevailing viewpoint from this camp is that although there might be marginal utilization increases this year, the profit spread will remain as pricing increases will exceed the expected increases in medical cost spending as a result of increased utilization. This stance prevailed in 2011 as utilization last year was below expectations, leading to overall MCO sector public market performance that exceeded other healthcare sectors.

While low healthcare utilization is generally beneficial to MCOs, it generally has the opposite effect on other healthcare sectors, including hospitals and healthcare IT and services companies. These groups generally benefit from the consumption of services, which was the focus of the most recent HCA earnings release. During this release, HCA cited a rise in same-facility admissions to be a key driver of their earnings increase despite a decline in domestic surgery admissions and revenue-per-equivalent admission fell amid Medicaid reduction.

However, it is important to note that role that several other factors play in formulating earnings expectations and guidance. Almost equally important to some MCOs as utilization (particularly those with Medicare enrollment) are factors related to new member enrollment and Medicare Advantage conversion rates. In addition, several MCOs face huge earnings upside related to expansion of Medicare / Medicaid dual eligible enrollment as well.

It appears that the uncertainty that plagued MCOs following PPACA’s passage has been pushed to the back burner as most MCOs have generally benefitted from the legislation. While there is still some fine-tuning on the edges of reform that still present an overhang for MCOs (namely, MLR limitations, administrative cost constraints), that is a topic for another day as the current focus appears to be squarely on near-term medical cost expenses and new opportunity capture (courtesy of dual eligible expansion, state Medicaid RFPs and commercial market pricing pressure).

Let us know what you think.

Joe Long

Joe Long is a Senior Analyst at TripleTree covering the healthcare industry, covering payer-focused healthcare software and service providers. You can email him at jlong@triple-tree.com.

Scott Donahue

Scott Donahue is a Vice President at TripleTree covering infrastructure and application technologies across numerous industries and specializes in assessing the “master brands” of IT and Healthcare. Follow Scott on Twitter or e-mail him at sdonahue@triple-tree.com

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The Clock is Ticking for Public Health Insurance Exchanges

The success of Obamacare relies entirely on every state having a health insurance exchange as mandated by the Affordable Care Act (ACA) up and running no later January 1, 2014.

By early 2013, the federal government (via Health and Human Services (HHS)) will make a determination as to each state’s readiness to bring their health insurance exchange online. Lack of readiness by the January 1, 2014 deadline means HHS will take over the implementation and operation of each exchange.

The clock is ticking…

We are following closely the progress that is being made by the states are convinced that only a handful will be ready by the deadline.   Moreover, we question whether HHS will be able to step in and offer their working version of an exchange either, or if that federal exchange will even be legally able to offer subsidized policies.

While we are not prepared to unilaterally conclude that ACA’s exchange deadline won’t be met by any state, a former HHS secretary is equally skeptical.

We want exchanges to succeed and believe they ultimately will (in some form).  Our reviews of the exchange initiatives have included studying the Early Innovator grants and interviewing state policy administrators and vendors selling into the exchange concept.  The amount of work that will need to be done in order to get the public exchanges stood up by 2014 is daunting.

TripleTree’s recent report on exchanges, HIX: An assessment of the complexities and opportunities emanating from the ACA’s public health insurance exchange concept introduces these challenges and some innovative solutions that could emerge as part of the solutions.  Since then however, the planning, procurement and testing are in the early innings; and operational integration is far from reality.   Unfortunately very few states have a demonstrated ability to pull off the kind of implementation prowess needed to come online, on time.

Putting politics and policy aside, there are at least three major challenges that each state will need to overcome (quickly) if the public exchanges have any chance of meeting the 2014 deadline:

1. States need more clarity on what they are building even though many states have RFPs out for technology and have drafted high level architectures.  There is universal uncertainty and lack of guidance from HHS on major issues such as to exactly how payments and subsidies will be processed  or how the carriers will integrate their workflow into the exchanges
2. States lack successful architectural models and commercially proven technical capabilities because there is no working model of an exchange. Those charged with building the models – the Early Innovator grantees – are far from ready, or have dropped out of the program and/or returned their remaining funds.  The often cited Massachusetts and Utah models fall short of the ACA requirements (as do the Medicare exchanges).   And no vendor has a turnkey solution.
3. States need more time – Given the massive scale and complexity of the exchanges and the integration that needs to be done with existing state and federal systems, it will be next to impossible to build an automated exchange as envisioned by the ACA in the next 16 months.

In our report, we also introduced the notion of private entities that may have the acumen and motivation to bring an insurance exchange online by the 2014 deadline.  We speculated that the private exchanges would start to roll-out in the second half of 2011 and even identified some of the likely players that would have compelling capabilities to drive the private exchange concept.

Our research asserted the real opportunities for the private sector to capitalize on the HIX mandate through a market-aligned solution that will have more impact to improve health insurance access than the federal mandates.  We are excited to see and will continue to watch the early launches of the private exchanges and believe the states and public HIX will benefit from modeling their efforts and approaches around the early successes from the private exchanges.

Let us know what you think.

Scott Donahue

Scott Donahue is a Vice President at TripleTree covering infrastructure and application technologies across numerous industries and specializes in assessing the “master brands” of IT and Healthcare. Follow Scott on Twitter or e-mail him at sdonahue@triple-tree.com

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Linking Value Based Purchasing & the Realities of Tracking Care Provider Accountability

On April 29^th the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) officially launched the Value Based Purchasing (VPB) initiative originally proposed by Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) in January.  The current form of the VBP rule was created in response to the enactment of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) in 2010, and was derived to ensure that providers are held accountable for the quality and type of care provided. What’s not as well-known is that although the VBP initiative won’t begin to impact reimbursement until the beginning of the federal fiscal year 2013 (Oct. 1, 2012), providers’ performance scores will begin being tracked this July.  This means the care being provided beginning on July 1, 2011 will have an impact on Medicare reimbursement in late 2012.

Because CMS will evaluate two separate clinical scores (achievement and improvement), CMS must establish a benchmark for each provider so that it can determine the improvement portion of each clinical measurement (score).  Then effective in 2012, CMS will track the performance of each qualifying provider from July 1, 2011 to March 31, 2012 to set the respective baselines for improvement. Given that this measurement period is quickly approaching, and the dollars that will be at risk for providers (estimated at $850 million in the first year) are so significant, we are puzzled to find a lack of VBP activity in the market (we note that there is a fair amount of patient satisfaction improvement initiatives and solutions, but few specific VBP offerings).

As a reference and based on the March 15 post by my colleague Adam Link, the graphic below represents key VBP data points that should be top of mind for hospital administrators:

source: TripleTree

While we continue to hear “value-based purchasing” thrown around a great deal, the impact of the initiative with regards to timing, structure and implementation schedule is widely unknown.  Further, it has become increasingly from our research and advisory based briefings that there are few technology enabled assets able to offer a comprehensive VBP reimbursement improvement platform.  Solutions do exist that can help providers assess “at-risk” reimbursement dollars and improve their HCAHPS scores and decision support solutions; which may be able to help providers improve their VBP clinical care scores/measurements.

However, we are unaware of any comprehensive, end-to-end VBP solution that will not only help providers measure and assess at-risk reimbursement, but can also analyze the relevant measures to help providers maximize Medicare reimbursement.  As we’ve opined in previous blog posts, we believe that such a solution will be highly valuable and coveted by providers as they appreciate the magnitude of the reimbursement dollars VBP will impact.  We’ll continue to watch this area and seek briefings with organization espousing market-ready VBP solutions. Let us know what you think and have a great week.

Jamie Lockhart

Jamie Lockhart is a Vice President with TripleTree covering healthcare software and service providers with a focus on consumer directed healthcare.  You can contact him at jlockhart@triple-tree.com

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While Obamacare Exchanges Remain Controversial; Opportunities Exist for Commercial Insurance Exchanges

With the seating of the new Congress, much attention has been given to the Republican pledge to repeal Obamacare, or at least their desire to defund major parts of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA). High on the list of defunding targets are the state mandated health insurance exchanges (section 1311).

The state exchanges are designed to be a marketplace where people not covered through their employers would shop for and purchase health insurance, and if qualified, would receive subsidies.  The PPACA mandates that all states must establish insurance exchanges for individuals to purchase insurance by 2014, or the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) will establish and run the exchange for the states who aren’t compliant.

The exchanges remain one of the most controversial aspects of the PPACA because of the large unfunded mandates they place on the states, in addition:

• The exchanges are the vehicle for supporting the Individual Mandate (the portion of the Reform Act that requires all US citizens to be covered under health insurance), and because of the very ambiguous rules legislated in the establishment of the exchanges.
• Half of the U.S. State Attorneys General are suing the federal government to block the mandate to implement insurance exchanges, claiming the rules are too ambiguous, that the unfunded mandate will bankrupt the states, and that the mandate is an overreach of federal powers.

The national debate on healthcare and popular sentiment to make health insurance more accessible and affordable has forced the health insurance companies to re-think how they market and sell their products.  As we have spoken about many times in the last year, the health insurance market is at the forefront of a fundamental shift to a retail business model from its legacy wholesale roots.

Despite the public scrutiny being paid to the insurance exchange mandate and congressional risks to rejigger the entire legislation, TripleTree is seeing a much more interesting dynamic forming in the healthcare insurance marketplace – early steps to establish alternative insurance exchange marketplaces by commercial entities.

A commercial healthcare exchange is a private venture between one or more insurance companies and a retailer (such as Walmart), bank, property and casualty insurance company.  It could in reality, include a range of consumer-oriented entity that unite to create a health insurance marketplace.

In the individual and small group market, consumers may find much higher value (and savings) in bundled insurance products (i.e. property, auto, life and health) than they would in singulary buying health insurance in the state dictated and controlled exchange.   Complicating things, this is especially true for consumers that would not qualify for the federal or state subsidies that can only be received if insurance is purchased in the public state exchange.

Today, most property and casualty holders get a discount for carrying multiple policies from the same carrier (e.g. homeowners and auto combined might yield a 15% discount on both policies).   Our research has led to many discussions with property and casualty insurers interested in bundling health insurance though a partnership (rather than direct underwriting).  Their goal?…aggregate and manage a larger share of consumer spend on insurance products.

Similarly, we are aware of large national retailers seeking to implement a proprietary insurance marketplace of as a way of extending a service mix to their customers, building brand loyalty and retaining customers within their own pharmacies.  While some retailers may form single entity partnerships, others see themselves as a marketplace for multiple carriers competing for business.  We anticipate seeing these commercial insurance exchange marketplaces begin rolling out sometime in 2011.

Though these commercial exchanges may not solve the adverse selection problem that the PPACA exchanges were designed to address, they should prove a successful partnership for the retailer and the insurance company that otherwise has difficulty marketing directly to consumers.  While states dither and politics hinder the roll-out of the public exchanges, many forward thinking commercial business recognize the market opportunity to provide a better insurance buying experience and are moving quickly to meet a market need – the way that free economies are supposed to work.

This is a thorny, emotional issue – and our research and sell-side mandates are paying close attention as technology-based solutions emerge.

Let us know what you think and have a great week!

Scott Donahue

Scott Donahue is a Vice President at TripleTree covering infrastructure and application technologies across numerous industries and specializes in assessing the “master brands” of IT and Healthcare. Follow Scott on Twitter or e-mail him at sdonahue@triple-tree.com

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