The Divide in the ACO Debate – Beltway Rhetoric versus Marketplace Cynicism

Amid the broader – and oftentimes highly opinionated and heated – ACO conversation occurring across Washington and the private sector, The Wall Street Journal published an interesting piece last week highlighting the specific views of three individuals:

• Don Berwick is the former administrator for CMS who just stepped down last December.  Don oversaw the creation of the ACO framework under the Medicare Shared Savings Program.
• Tom Scully is currently a General Partner at the New York-based private equity firm Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe.  Tom formerly served as the CMS administrator from 2001 to 2004 and CEO of the Federation of American Hospitals.
• Jeff Goldsmith is a president of Health Futures, a healthcare consulting firm out of Charlottesville, VA and an associate professor of public health sciences at the University of Virginia.

What becomes immediately apparent in the three-way dialogue (done via email) is the lens through which various participants view the industry’s efforts to improve healthcare’s fundamental problem of shifting from the traditional fee for service to a value-based approach.  There aren’t any quick, silver bullet answers to the debate, but what is evident is the divide among those that represent Washington’s political rhetoric (Don) and those that must figure out ways to make the new framework work within a dynamic, private care delivery system (Tom and Jeff).

Several disagreements bubble to the surface related to:

The role providers will play

• Berwick: “The ACO premise is different. Beneficiaries don’t join an ACO; providers of care do.”
• Scully: “The biggest flaw with ACOs is that they are driving more power to hospitals—not to doctors. Very scary, and I am a hospital guy.” … “If the doctors had the capital to organize comprehensive ACOs to control their own fate and drive us to more efficient care, I would be bullish on ACOs. But doctors are again along for the ride, not driving the bus.”
• Goldsmith: “In practice, however, the ACO is more like asking the hungry horse to guard the granary. The major savings for Medicare are to be found by keeping people out of the hospital, and reducing the incomes of the specialists who dominate hospital politics. To get those savings, hospitals and their specialists have to turn their backs on five decades of making more by doing more.”

Emphasis on the patient

• Berwick: “…the formula for ACO success is clear: keep quality high, save money by improving—not by restricting—care, and remain attractive to beneficiaries, who could go anywhere for care.”
• Scully: “The best models for ACOs are doctor groups like Monarch HealthCare in Los Angeles or JSA HealthCare in Tampa. Give doctors lots of patient data, pay them to see patients more often, follow their drug use and health status more closely to keep them out of hospitals—and give them control of the cash!”
• Goldsmith: “The biggest problem with the ACO, however, isn’t the faulty business proposition, but the patient’s role.” … “In the ACO, providers are accountable to Medicare. Patients won’t get a dime of the savings, and no choice whether to participate or not.” “Despite all the rhetoric about ACOs being patient-centered, it is a paternalistic, “we’ll decide what you need” kind of model.”

Prospects for care improvements and financial success of ACOs

• Berwick: “Knowing full well the results of the PGP demonstration, the CMS office of the actuary estimated base-case Medicare savings of over $400 million in the first three years of the ACO program.”  … The “32 physician groups and health-care systems selected for the pioneer program, covering 860,000 Medicare beneficiaries, [are] projected to save $1.1 billion in health-care costs over the first five years.”
• Scully: “In the system we have, ACOs are conceptually right, in that the concept inches toward differential pricing for quality, and Don should be congratulated. But we need to step back out of the trees, look at the forest and question the financing system we have created.”
• Goldsmith: “Having each community, large or small, set up its own ACO is like setting up a backyard steel mill.” … “It is the incredibly heterogeneous 5% of the population that generates 47% of all costs that you need to focus on, and if you don’t have enough of them in your “attributed” population, you cannot concentrate the resources to change their care and lives.”

Startup costs of an ACO

• Scully: “The start-up cost of a real ACO is probably $30 million and up in a midsize market.”
• Berwick: “The actual barriers to entry appear a lot lower than the $30 million cost that Tom Scully mentions; CMS estimates are only a fraction of that.” “… the CMS Innovation Center has proposed a program of advance payment to provide front-end capital and extra operating funds for care coordination, information systems and the like.”
• Goldsmith: “A more credible estimate of setup costs for a provider system with no prior managed-care experience to participate in the shared savings program: $10 million to $15 million per health system (consulting, IT systems conversions, new staff, etc.).”

 Prospects for success

• Berwick: “Smart entrants, focused on seamless care, outcomes and beneficiary satisfaction, will both reduce Medicare’s expenditures and reap financial rewards for themselves.” … “I hope and expect that ACOs will honor the trust they have been given by doing the job—lower cost through care improvements. If they violate that trust, the costs to them and to the future of seamless, coordinated care in America will be high indeed.”
• Scully: “Don’s vision is great, and who can’t like what he has tried to do with ACOs… Except that the incentives are very small, the change will be slow, and we are just nibbling at real system reform.”
• Goldsmith: “There were a lot of good ideas in the Affordable Care Act for saving money and improving quality. Unfortunately, the ACO wasn’t one of them.” … “By pushing this edgy idea from the policy world and ignoring the real-world evidence of its own trials, CMS picked the wrong horse.”

In a final from Jeff Goldsmith: “One of the most serious problems with the health-care world just now is the gap between the policy world and the real world. The ACO is Exhibit A in this yawning disconnect.”  Jeff is right to point out that there’s a divide between the public and private domains, yet progress, however small, has arguably been made.

The real question is whether “the vision” put forth by Don Berwick will ultimately evolve into a pervasive performance-based delivery model in which quality, efficiency, and choice are the driving factors behind private sector reimbursement and profitability.  To those outside of Washington, there certainly seems to be a long way to go – let us know what you think.

Seth Kneller

Seth Kneller is a Vice President at TripleTree covering the healthcare industry, specializing in revenue cycle management, clinical software solutions, geriatric care and healthcare analytics. Follow Seth on Twitter or e-mail him at skneller@triple-tree.com.

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The Clock is Ticking for Public Health Insurance Exchanges

The success of Obamacare relies entirely on every state having a health insurance exchange as mandated by the Affordable Care Act (ACA) up and running no later January 1, 2014.

By early 2013, the federal government (via Health and Human Services (HHS)) will make a determination as to each state’s readiness to bring their health insurance exchange online. Lack of readiness by the January 1, 2014 deadline means HHS will take over the implementation and operation of each exchange.

The clock is ticking…

We are following closely the progress that is being made by the states are convinced that only a handful will be ready by the deadline.   Moreover, we question whether HHS will be able to step in and offer their working version of an exchange either, or if that federal exchange will even be legally able to offer subsidized policies.

While we are not prepared to unilaterally conclude that ACA’s exchange deadline won’t be met by any state, a former HHS secretary is equally skeptical.

We want exchanges to succeed and believe they ultimately will (in some form).  Our reviews of the exchange initiatives have included studying the Early Innovator grants and interviewing state policy administrators and vendors selling into the exchange concept.  The amount of work that will need to be done in order to get the public exchanges stood up by 2014 is daunting.

TripleTree’s recent report on exchanges, HIX: An assessment of the complexities and opportunities emanating from the ACA’s public health insurance exchange concept introduces these challenges and some innovative solutions that could emerge as part of the solutions.  Since then however, the planning, procurement and testing are in the early innings; and operational integration is far from reality.   Unfortunately very few states have a demonstrated ability to pull off the kind of implementation prowess needed to come online, on time.

Putting politics and policy aside, there are at least three major challenges that each state will need to overcome (quickly) if the public exchanges have any chance of meeting the 2014 deadline:

1. States need more clarity on what they are building even though many states have RFPs out for technology and have drafted high level architectures.  There is universal uncertainty and lack of guidance from HHS on major issues such as to exactly how payments and subsidies will be processed  or how the carriers will integrate their workflow into the exchanges
2. States lack successful architectural models and commercially proven technical capabilities because there is no working model of an exchange. Those charged with building the models – the Early Innovator grantees – are far from ready, or have dropped out of the program and/or returned their remaining funds.  The often cited Massachusetts and Utah models fall short of the ACA requirements (as do the Medicare exchanges).   And no vendor has a turnkey solution.
3. States need more time – Given the massive scale and complexity of the exchanges and the integration that needs to be done with existing state and federal systems, it will be next to impossible to build an automated exchange as envisioned by the ACA in the next 16 months.

In our report, we also introduced the notion of private entities that may have the acumen and motivation to bring an insurance exchange online by the 2014 deadline.  We speculated that the private exchanges would start to roll-out in the second half of 2011 and even identified some of the likely players that would have compelling capabilities to drive the private exchange concept.

Our research asserted the real opportunities for the private sector to capitalize on the HIX mandate through a market-aligned solution that will have more impact to improve health insurance access than the federal mandates.  We are excited to see and will continue to watch the early launches of the private exchanges and believe the states and public HIX will benefit from modeling their efforts and approaches around the early successes from the private exchanges.

Let us know what you think.

Scott Donahue

Scott Donahue is a Vice President at TripleTree covering infrastructure and application technologies across numerous industries and specializes in assessing the “master brands” of IT and Healthcare. Follow Scott on Twitter or e-mail him at sdonahue@triple-tree.com

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Reading the Tea Leaves: The HITECH Act & Health Reform in the Wake of the Election

The results of the November mid-term elections signaled Republican gains across the board and a majority win in the House. This power shift creates an air of uncertainly and raises a major question for the future of healthcare in the United States.  For those in the Healthcare IT domain, many wondered if this political sea change would affect the $20 Billion promised to EMR adoption through “meaningful use” in the HITECH Act.

Many pundits believe a major focus of the recent election was Obama’s healthcare reform legislation. In fact, according to HIMSS, nearly 20% of voters indicated that health was the single most significant factor in their vote.  It’s important to remember that the HITECH Act is part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) established in 2009 and not part Obama’s healthcare reform initiative.  The HITECH Act was established as an important initiative to create jobs and usher America’s outdated healthcare system into the modern age.  When HITECH was established in 2009 it received wide support from democrats and republicans alike.

So what do these election results mean for the future of the HITECH Act?

• Repeal or reduction in funding is highly unlikely. Most experts can agree with the conclusion that healthcare IT funding is not a key item targeted for spending cuts.  According to Jennifer Haberkorn, a healthcare policy and politics reporter with POLITICO, “It’s not on the radar”.  Haberkorn and other experts agree that Obama’s Healthcare Reform is the banner issue and the HITECH Act should proceed as planned with full funding.
• Increased oversight on all healthcare spending, including HITECH. More scrutiny will be placed on all government spending going forward and there will be no exception for the HITECH Act.
• More uncertainty. All of these factors create uncertainty.  This could lead to hospitals spending money quickly rather than wisely. Changes to the definition of “meaningful use” or other legislative modifications will create headaches for healthcare institutions banking on these Federal dollars.

The view of TripleTree and most experts is that HITECH Act is safe for the time being.  This is good news to the Healthcare IT domain and those who are driving to see technology improvements in the U.S. healthcare system.  TripleTree is closely following these developments. Stay tuned for updates related to the HITECH Act.  Visit www.himss.org to see a detailed presentation entitled, “A Post – Election Analysis: Potential Effects on Health IT Policy”.

Michael Boardman

Michael Boardman is an associate at TripleTree covering the healthcare and technology industries, specializing in clinical software solutions.  Follow Michael on Twitter or e-mail him at mboardman@triple-tree.com.

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